Saturday, December 13, 2008

Inconsistency in Ethiopia 2007 Census result

I just heard that the population of Ethiopia was 73.9 million in 2007, significantly lower than the 79.1 million expected based on the 1994 census result.

Ethiopia's population has risen by a staggering 23.4 million people over the past 14 years, to its current 76.9 million, according to a census approved by parliament recently. The census dates from May 2007 and includes a projected annual growth rate of 2.6 million people, after delays in the verification process.

The Fertility rate , Population growth, Population size in 1994 and 2007 respectievely are:

Tigray is (5.1 , 2.48 , 3136267 , 4314456 )
Amhara (5.1, 1.70, 13834297, 17214056)
Oromiya (6.2, 2.90, 18732525, 27158471)
SNNP (5.6, 2.90, 10377028, 15042531)
Addis Ababa( 3.6, 2.01, 2112737, 2738248)

From the above figure we can clearly see that the fertility rate is not proportional to the growth rate in Amhara region. There is no justification for the 1.7 percent growth rate in the Amhara region. If we take a conservative growth rate of 2.51 percent, which is the same as the national average, then the true population of the Amhara region is 19.09 million, not 17.21 million. Nearly two million people have ceased to exist in the Amhara region not because of any sudden earthquake or tsunami but because of unprofessional manipulation.

God bless Ethiopia
Alemu